BofAML survey: Number of fund managers expecting global recession in next year jumps 15 August 2019

Downturn risk highest in eight years

The number of fund managers predicting a global recession has climbed to an eight-year high, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) August Fund Manager Survey, heightened by trade war concerns.

Among the fund managers surveyed, encompassing some 224 investors with assets under management of $553bn, 34% said a global recession is likely in the next 12 months, marking the highest recession probability since October 2011.

This is compared to April's Fund Manager Survey when only 6% of respondents expected a global recession this year, and 86% said they did not believe the inversion of the US Treasury yield curve signalled an impending market downturn. However, 64% of respondents still think a global recession is unlikely.

The survey also discovered that net 43% of investors expect lower short-term rates and net 9% expect higher long-term rates over the next 12 months.

BofAML reported that this is the most bullish fund manager survey view on bonds since November 2008.